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If I had a gun (or a lollipop for those who are anti-guns) to my head and I had to make the correct decision or the gun/lollipop would spontaneously explode… who would I choose as the winners of the 2008 Iowa Caucus?

For the Republican side I would have to go with Romney. Rudy Giuliani has been non-existent here in Iowa. I’m not sure if he has decided that Iowa just isn’t worth his time or what the deal is. From the top of my head I cannot recall any news coverage about him being in the state. Does he even know Iowa exists? I know that Giuliani is the lead in the national polls, but Romney and especially Mike Huckabee have been the stars in the state. I would really like to see Mike Huckabee win Iowa – but at this moment I believe that more of Romney’s supporters would make it out to caucus. While Mike Huckabee hasn’t been consistent with the number of supporters, Romney’s numbers have stayed consistent for the better part of the year.

As for the Democrats…. I would like to see Barrack Obama pull it out ahead for the Democrats because I believe he’s easier to beat in 2008. If someone was jabbing that lollipop at the side of my head I would say Hillary will pull through in the end because she has a lot of silent support from those who don’t participate in random phone call polls. She has the Clinton machine behind her where the consensus is that “a Clinton can do no wrong.”

…..

Meanwhile the polls say something else…

From The Des Moines Register:

Mike Huckabee has leaped ahead of Republican presidential rival Mitt Romney in Iowa, seizing first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus participants.

Huckabee wins the support of 29 percent of Iowans who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican Party’s caucuses on Jan. 3. That’s a gain of 17 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll was taken in early October, when Huckabee trailed both Romney and Fred Thompson.

And….

Barack Obama has pulled ahead in the race for Iowa’s Democratic presidential caucuses, while the party’s national frontrunner Hillary Clinton has slipped to second in the leadoff nominating state, according to The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll.

…

Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register’s poll as the choice of 28 percent of likely caucusgoers, up from 22 percent in October. Clinton, a New York senator, was the preferred candidate of 25 percent, down from 29 percent in the previous poll.

But who trust polls?